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1. 

   Gage on December 13, 2015 at 12:28 pm

   I’ve read a few of your comments on peak oil and I like what I read – you cerniatly know a lot about the oil sector. Out of curiosity, do you work in the industry? No. I used to work in the aircraft manufacturing industry making planes for McDonnell Douglas and Boeing in Toronto and for a time in China. The Peak Oil was of obvious interest to me because it would have a big effect on the sector. I was very interested in Hubbert as well as the Russian theory on abiotic formation of oil and gas. While there could have been an argument against Hubbert many years ago, the most recent developments have proven that his theory was correct. After years of making stupid assumptions the IEA has finally seen the light and began to ask some serious questions. And even though some of its reserve numbers are in question, the production data, which is harder to mess up, is showing that we are facing serious troubles going forward. In 2008 it finally admitted that without new investment in development and exploration the natural depletion rate would run at 9.1%. What saved us was not a supply response but a collapse in demand that brought use down by around 2 mbpd. Although that is a small number as a percentage of the total, it was enough to create massive volatility and cut prices by 75% or so. The problem is that the volatility runs both ways and we could see the natural decline rates create a squeeze that drives prices much higher. The process of boom/collapse will likely continue as prices lead to demand destruction that is followed by a reduction in investment in new production. I would use price declines to purchase shares of tar sands companies with plenty of reserves, decent cash flow, and a low cost base. And buy gold.

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